Background

Notes and format last updated May 7, 2020

Starting on the May 7th update, the NY Times began including probable covid cases/deaths along with confirmed. This mostly affects death counts – for certain geographies that include probable COVID deaths in addition to confirmed, these are now added to the totals. For the time being, they were all added to the May 6th totals, causing a big spike at the U.S. level. Over time, NY Times will revise their historical counts and distribute these added deaths when they actually occurred, so the spike should fade.

Growth rates

Heat maps

  • The two heat maps below compare how quickly total cases or deaths have grown at various times in our respective geopgraphies.
  • The first plot compares growth rate for total cases; the second, growth rate for total deaths.
  • The metric used is doubling time, by which I mean how quickly total cases or deaths are doubling.
  • The plots track that doubling time at each date for our geographies. Darker colors reflect shorter doubling times, and thus periods of faster growth.
    • You can use the plots to track each geography over time and to compare the geographies to one another.
    • You can also compare the cases and death charts, to see how faster periods of death growth follow faster periods of case growth.

Case growth rates

  • This section charts the growth rate of both total and new cases for each of our respective geographies. Each geography has its own chart, and then that chart will have a trendline for total cases and new cases.
    • There are only plots for the U.S. and states because the numbers for the counties are too small to generate worthwhile trendlines in this section.
  • Note that we’re charting growth rate and not a count of cases, so don’t think of these as the standard “curve” that we hear about in the news and that we want to flatten. Instead, these growth rate charts help track more precisely what we can only estimate when we see those other curves. For these growth rate charts, if the line is above zero, the metric we are tracking (total or new cases) is continuing to grow. If the growth rate line is going up, it’s growing more quickly each day; if it’s going down but still above zero, it’s growing less quickly (but still growing). Only when the growth rate lines go below zero has the metric stopped growing.
  • Each of these two lines uses rolling windows to calculate a growth rate for that particular metric. I do the calculation differently for each to smooth out some of the large day-to-day discrepancies in new case reporting at the state level.
    • For total cases, the trendlines are a rolling 3-day average of daily growth rates in total cases. We want to see these decline (and almost all are), but they can’t go below zero. This is because we’re tracking growth rate and a growth rate line below zero would mean total cases have gone down, which can’t happen. They can only grow less quickly, which means we want to see the total case line get as close to zero as possible.
    • For new cases, the trendlines show a rolling 3-day average of daily growth rate in the rolling 7-day average of new cases. Including two rolling periods in this average helps smooth out crazy spikes at the state level that result from large day-to-day changes. Unlike the lines for total cases, we want to watch for the lines for new cases to get consistently below zero and stay there. That means that we are consistently seeing fewer new cases on a daily basis.

U.S.

Our states

Death growth rates

  • This section charts the growth rate of both total and new deaths for each of our respective geographies. Each geography has its own chart, and then that chart will have a trendline for total deaths and new deaths.
    • There are only plots for the U.S. and states because the numbers for the counties are too small to generate worthwhile trendlines in this section.
  • Note that we’re charting growth rate and not a count of deaths, so don’t think of these as the standard “curve” that we hear about in the news and that we want to flatten. Instead, these growth rate charts help track more precisely what we can only estimate when we see those other curves. For these growth rate charts, if the line is above zero, the metric we are tracking (total or new deaths) is continuing to grow. If the growth rate line is going up, it’s growing more quickly each day; if it’s going down but still above zero, it’s growing less quickly (but still growing). Only when the growth rate lines go below zero has the metric stopped growing.
  • Each of these two lines uses rolling windows to calculate a growth rate for that particular metric. I do the calculation differently for each to smooth out some of the large day-to-day discrepancies in new death reporting at the state level.
    • For total deaths, the trendlines are a rolling 3-day average of daily growth rates in total deaths. We want to see these decline (and almost all are), but they can’t go below zero. This is because we’re tracking growth rate and a growth rate line below zero would mean total deaths have gone down, which can’t happen. They can only grow less quickly, which means we want to see the total death line get as close to zero as possible.
    • For new deaths, the trendlines show a rolling 3-day average of daily growth rate in the rolling 7-day average of new deaths. Including two rolling periods in this average helps smooth out crazy spikes at the state level that result from large day-to-day changes. Unlike the lines for total deaths, we want to watch for the lines for new deaths to get consistently below zero and stay there. That means that we are consistently seeing fewer new deaths on a daily basis.

U.S.

Our states

By population rankings

This section tracks metrics for states and counties normalized for population (number of cases or deaths per million residents), and then compares these figures both for our geographies and the country overall.

States

  • This section shows tables ranking all 50 states for per populations rates of total cases, new cases, total deaths, and new deaths.
  • For each metric, in addition to the tables, the trends for the top states are plotted over time.
    • We only plot the top ten states for each metric so that the plots aren’t too crowded. But you can view the full 50-state rankings in the tables.

Total confirmed cases

Table of total confirmed cases per million residents (all 50 states)
Ranking State Cases Per Million
1 North Dakota 145,031
2 Rhode Island 143,797
3 South Dakota 140,598
4 Utah 128,026
5 Tennessee 124,885
6 Arizona 122,000
7 Iowa 118,170
8 Wisconsin 116,215
9 Nebraska 115,762
10 South Carolina 115,623
11 Oklahoma 115,023
12 New Jersey 114,873
13 Arkansas 114,207
14 Delaware 112,366
15 Indiana 111,926
16 Alabama 111,829
17 Illinois 109,880
18 Kansas 109,132
19 Idaho 108,556
20 New York 108,388
21 Mississippi 107,357
22 Florida 107,124
23 Minnesota 107,124
24 Nevada 106,551
25 Wyoming 106,018
26 Montana 105,847
27 Georgia 104,096
28 Kentucky 103,845
29 Massachusetts 102,876
30 Texas 102,625
31 Louisiana 102,562
32 Missouri 101,625
33 Michigan 99,758
34 Connecticut 97,764
35 New Mexico 97,514
36 Colorado 96,418
37 North Carolina 96,328
38 California 96,304
39 Alaska 95,938
40 Pennsylvania 94,832
41 Ohio 94,780
42 West Virginia 91,125
43 Virginia 79,459
44 Maryland 76,366
45 New Hampshire 72,953
46 District of Columbia 69,745
47 Washington 58,795
48 Puerto Rico 54,192
49 Maine 51,095
50 Oregon 48,789
51 Vermont 39,019
52 Hawaii 25,306

New confirmed cases

Table of new cases per million residents: rolling 3-day average (all 50 states)
Ranking State New Cases Per Million
1 Wyoming 140
2 Nevada 114
3 Missouri 104
4 Louisiana 103
5 Utah 85
6 Montana 81
7 Arkansas 76
8 Idaho 75
9 Washington 71
10 West Virginia 69
11 Colorado 68
12 New Mexico 68
13 Alabama 67
14 Kansas 63
15 Oklahoma 63
16 Oregon 59
17 Arizona 57
18 North Carolina 57
19 Alaska 53
20 Indiana 53
21 Texas 48
22 Mississippi 44
23 Kentucky 42
24 Rhode Island 37
25 Michigan 35
26 Tennessee 32
27 Georgia 31
28 New Hampshire 31
29 District of Columbia 30
30 New Jersey 28
31 South Carolina 28
32 Iowa 27
33 Pennsylvania 27
34 North Dakota 26
35 California 25
36 Hawaii 25
37 Ohio 24
38 Maine 23
39 Nebraska 23
40 Wisconsin 21
41 Delaware 20
42 Connecticut 19
43 Illinois 19
44 Virginia 18
45 Minnesota 17
46 New York 17
47 Vermont 14
48 Maryland 11
49 Puerto Rico 10
50 Massachusetts 9
51 South Dakota 9
52 Florida 0

Total deaths

Table of total deaths per million residents (all 50 states)
Ranking State Deaths Per Million
1 New Jersey 2,966
2 New York 2,724
3 Massachusetts 2,604
4 Rhode Island 2,570
5 Mississippi 2,475
6 Arizona 2,444
7 Connecticut 2,318
8 Alabama 2,302
9 Louisiana 2,295
10 South Dakota 2,290
11 Pennsylvania 2,154
12 Michigan 2,083
13 New Mexico 2,054
14 Indiana 2,044
15 North Dakota 2,037
16 Illinois 2,014
17 Arkansas 1,944
18 Iowa 1,936
19 Georgia 1,934
20 South Carolina 1,900
21 Oklahoma 1,858
22 Nevada 1,829
23 Tennessee 1,816
24 Texas 1,799
25 Kansas 1,771
26 Florida 1,735
27 Delaware 1,724
28 Ohio 1,721
29 Kentucky 1,616
30 District of Columbia 1,613
31 Maryland 1,603
32 Missouri 1,601
33 California 1,600
34 West Virginia 1,596
35 Montana 1,542
36 Wisconsin 1,381
37 Minnesota 1,350
38 Virginia 1,327
39 Nebraska 1,301
40 North Carolina 1,271
41 Wyoming 1,268
42 Colorado 1,189
43 Idaho 1,189
44 New Hampshire 1,003
45 Puerto Rico 794
46 Washington 768
47 Utah 724
48 Oregon 657
49 Maine 634
50 Alaska 486
51 Vermont 410
52 Hawaii 355

New deaths

Table of new deaths per million residents: rolling 3-day average (all 50 states)
Ranking State New Deaths Per Million
1 Wyoming 5
2 Kansas 2
3 Montana 2
4 Oklahoma 2
5 West Virginia 2
6 Alabama 1
7 Arizona 1
8 Colorado 1
9 Georgia 1
10 Idaho 1
11 Illinois 1
12 Kentucky 1
13 Louisiana 1
14 Maine 1
15 Michigan 1
16 Mississippi 1
17 Missouri 1
18 Nevada 1
19 New Mexico 1
20 North Carolina 1
21 Oregon 1
22 Pennsylvania 1
23 Wisconsin 1
24 Alaska 0
25 Arkansas 0
26 California 0
27 Connecticut 0
28 Delaware 0
29 District of Columbia 0
30 Florida 0
31 Hawaii 0
32 Indiana 0
33 Iowa 0
34 Maryland 0
35 Massachusetts 0
36 Minnesota 0
37 Nebraska 0
38 New Hampshire 0
39 New Jersey 0
40 New York 0
41 North Dakota 0
42 Ohio 0
43 Puerto Rico 0
44 Rhode Island 0
45 South Carolina 0
46 South Dakota 0
47 Tennessee 0
48 Texas 0
49 Utah 0
50 Vermont 0
51 Virginia 0
52 Washington 0

Counties

  • This section focuses on the county level. It shows tables with our counties ranked by percentile of U.S. counties for per population rates of total cases and total deaths.
    • Each table also shows the top five counties in the country in addition to our counties, for added perspecive.
  • In addition to the tables, our counties’ percentile for both total cases and total deaths are plotted over time.

Confirmed cases

Table showing total cases per million and percentile for all US counties. Includes our counties and the top 5 in the US for perspective.
County State Cases Per Million Raw Ranking Percentile
Chattahoochee Georgia 404,511 1 99
Crowley Colorado 364,626 2 99
Bent Colorado 276,851 3 99
Dewey South Dakota 250,849 4 99
Lincoln Arkansas 247,543 5 99
Davidson Tennessee 143,369 196 93
Richland South Carolina 113,927 999 68
York South Carolina 113,752 1005 68
Orange California 85,911 2272 27
Pierce Washington 62,307 2830 9

Our county percentiles over time

Deaths

Table showing total deaths per million and percentile for all US counties. Includes our counties and the top 5 in the US for perspective.
County State Deaths Per Million Raw Ranking Percentile
Foard Texas 8,658 1 99
Galax city Virginia 8,350 2 99
Hancock Georgia 8,159 3 99
Jerauld South Dakota 7,948 4 99
Emporia city Virginia 7,856 5 99
Orange California 1,608 1859 40
York South Carolina 1,388 2116 32
Richland South Carolina 1,381 2125 32
Davidson Tennessee 1,363 2150 31
Pierce Washington 697 2805 10

Our county percentiles over time

Raw counts

Total confirmed cases

U.S.

Our states

Our counties

New confirmed cases

U.S.

Our states

Our counties

Total deaths

U.S.

Our states

Our counties

New deaths

U.S.

Our states

Our counties

Stay-at-home comparisons